The Weight of Our Choices

Nicola Biggerstaff

This year has already been tipped to be the biggest test of the democratic system to date – with over two billion people across fifty countries expected to cast ballots in national and/or regional elections. Here in the UK, we can expect a general election no later than January 2025, while established democracies and autocratic states alike will be opening their polling stations to mixed degrees of freedom and fairness. But are we really in a position to judge these ourselves?

In the west, we’re in a position of privilege that our democracies generally remain unthreatened. But we only got to this position thanks to hundreds of years of imperial oppression and interference. And even so, through constitutional loopholes the United States could potentially allow Donald Trump to return to the White House, threatening many federal safeguards for protected groups, the environment, and diplomacy alike.

So, what else is at stake across the globe this year?

In the United Kingdom

As mentioned, we can expect a general election no later than January next year, being called no later than November of this year. After suffering their biggest byelection defeats since the Second World War, the Conservatives are expected to lose power after almost a decade and a half, with a Labour government taking shape for the first time since 2010.

However, with the choice of likely candidates for the next Prime Minister being between two privately educated Oxford graduates, it’s hard to see any election outcome which is truly representative of the electorate.

In the United States

The US Presidential election will take place on the 5^th of November this year, in which incumbent Democrat Joe Biden will once again face the likely Republican nominee, former President Trump. It is still being contested in the Supreme Court whether Trump will be permitted to run, having lost several civil lawsuits and is now facing criminal charges across multiple states and at the federal level.

The US Constitution bars anyone who has ‘engaged in insurrection or rebellion’ from holding office, and Trump’s legal team have been pressuring prosecutors to delay trials and verdicts until after November in the hope that he will win the election and receive presidential immunity from prosecution.

On the other hand, President Biden’s mental competency due to his age has been a hot topic since he announced his bid for re-election last April. He has been caught committing several bluffs on camera, but strongly refutes any claims that he cannot lead the largest military in the world. At the age of 81, he remains the oldest President in US history.

In Russia

Having amended the Russian constitution back in 2020 to allow Putin to run for a historic consecutive third term, he is expected to win the Russian Federation’s upcoming presidential election, being held from the 15^th-17^th of March.

Despite four candidates being on the ballot for the first round of voting, this election is expected to be neither free nor fair, with candidates who have taken a strong anti-war stance in the continuing invasion of Ukraine being barred over alleged registration discrepancies, and of course after the death of Putin’s largest contender, Alexei Navalny, while incarcerated in a penal colony on trumped up charges.

In India

The Indian general election is expected to take place between April and May of this year to elect the 543 seats of their lower house, the Lok Sabha. According to opinion polls, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led by the incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi are expected to win a third term in government.

Despite being a popular public figure nationally, Modi’s tenure has been mired in controversy from the international community, particularly surrounding the continuing marginalisation of the minority Muslim population in the country, which has only been exacerbated by the Citizenship (Amendment) Act introduced in 2019 which could potentially leave many Indian Muslims stateless.

In Pakistan

This week the Pakistan People Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN) announced they have enough support to form a coalition government following the controversial general election held on the 8^th of February.

This comes after a campaign mired in allegations of rigging and crackdowns on political rivals following the deposition and imprisonment of former Prime Minister Imran Khan in 2022. His Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party allege to have been subjected to unjust interventions by the Pakistani military. Despite this, they still managed to win the largest number of seats in the national legislature and remain the most popular party in several provinces.

In Europe

The first European Parliament elections since the UK officially left the European Union are set to take place from 6^th-9^th of June. Concerns around the rise of the far-right in Europe will make this a strongly fought election, even in the face of historically lower turnout than national-level elections.

With the majority of nations electing their MEPs through proportional voting systems, there has been a delicate balance of power across the political spectrum in which cooperation is not only encouraged, but necessary in order to make progress. These concerns over extreme right-wing candidates possibly gaining more seats threatens to disrupt this, causing general co-operation to swing into the more conservative parties’ favour.

Of the UK’s 73 former seats, 27 were redistributed proportionately, and 46 were abolished outright, leaving 705 seats to be contested this time around.

We must remain vigilant to the changing political tides across the globe as well as at home. Democracy is fluid, and we must do everything in our power to retain and improve the system where we can. If you aren’t already, make sure you are registered to vote for when our time comes.