Voting for All of Our Futures

Bill Johnston & Craig Dalzell - 12 May 2022

The fact that Scotland’s population is ageing is rooted in our politics and popular media debate. Scotland is often framed as an “ageing nation” where more of us get to live longer lives but a greater percentage of our population is made of people living those lives into older age. This is often framed as a negative – especially when it is measured in terms of the ratio of “burdensome” pensioners vs “productive” people of working age. However, as we have demonstrated in our recent book All of Our Futures, the fact of our living longer should be consider a success of our civilisation – not a burden. Indeed, rollbacks in the life expectancy of the average person in Scotland is a direct consequence of more than a decade of harmful Austerity politics and has been to the profit of no-one except the financial sector. However, as more people live longer the generational profile for work, pensions, housing, health, and social care does change and these changes must be reflected in public policy. These are all areas burdened with entrenched inequalities and in urgent need of improvement.  Key policy priorities for national and local government include: 

• Combating ageism. 
• Investing in healthy ageing. 
• Creating age-friendly labour markets and workplaces. 
• Renovating housing to meet changing needs as we age. 
• Including all age groups in policy making, service design and decision making. 

With so many of these areas also being within the remit of our Local Authorities surely our ageing population should have featured in this month’s local election?

This article is a timely attempt to answer the question by analysing the Party Manifestos and exploring the National’s valuable daily reports on each of Scotland’s 32 local authority in the weeks running up to the election. Following the 2021 Holyrood election, and preceding a possible IndyRef2 in 2023, the local elections provide a valuable source of insight into the politics of age, ageing and population change in Scotland.

The tale of the manifestos is quickly told – Unless the party in question has a particular interest in the National Care Service and sometimes not even then, very few promises were made in this election specifically about older people. The Greens were perhaps the strongest in this regard with a single snippet of policy about the kind of continuous age planning we’ve advocated for in our book and for provision of “a range of services for older people, recognising personal choice”. Labour’s policies for older people were all couched within Care with an offer for free personal care for over-65s. Policies for older people or on ageing were conspicuous in their absence in the SNP and Conservative manifestos and mentioned only indirectly in the Lib Dem plans with a single reference to improving wellbeing for care home residents.

Consequently, the rest of the article concentrates on impressions gained the National’s reporting to provide a snapshot – often from candidates themselves  - of how our demographic realities played out up to the 5^th of May.  

Common Issues.

As The National reports are based on interviews, quotes, available knowledge and reporter observations, the following notes are selections from the content of the articles.  Issues vary in kind and significance by area – urban, rural, island, well off, poor – within and between local authorities. 

Representative issues described in the articles included: balance of industrial and tourism development; affordable housing; homelessness; housebuilding programmes; access to affordable rented accommodation; retaining young folk in the local area; local transport connectivity including ferries; maintenance of roads, pavements, and parking; local health services; Covid impact; lack of joined up Council thinking; depressed town centres; infrastructure developments; over-runs on capital projects; cost of living increases; fuel costs; waste collection services; community empowerment; attention to women and minorities; provision for disability; educational attainment. 

Understandably these issues with local variations comprised the bulk of the articles and it is fair to say that our ageing population didn’t appear as a significant item. Of course, all the above could be related to the demographic profile of Scotland’s local authorities to help develop policies and allocate resources by sharpening focus and enhancing outcomes.  There was a particular awareness of issues interacting with each other, for example an increase in younger families generating housing, education, and public transport needs. Brexit appeared in several articles in relation to staffing shortages, supply chain difficulties and a general sense that the supposed economic benefits have not materialised. 

Ageing Population/Demographics as an issue.

Age, ageing and generational aspects of demographic change featured across the local authorities, particularly in terms of age profiles as they relate to politics, local economy, and need for services. Here are a few examples:

Age and Democratic Inclusion.

• Age profiles were sometimes linked to voting intentions (e.g. older more Tory/younger more SNP and Green) in addition farming community folk deemed very likely to vote Tory with differential turnout deemed a significant factor in determining the result in rural elections. Whilst often backed up by statistical evidence, this widespread stereotyping can result in the erroneous profiling of individual voters and thus either writing them off or taking them for granted without actually seeking their views.

• One then-incumbant Council leader was quoted as saying “It’s accepted with the demographic of the area it would be very unlikely anyone would achieve a majority.  We have a lot of older people in the area, but also a lot of younger people and families because we have the best schools in the country, so there’s a real mix of views and voting patterns”. 

• Faith in young voters and candidates by SNP/Greens in the light of the SNP/Green co-operation agreement, particularly as the electoral franchise has been extended to people aged 16+.  This was reinforced by one candidate (age 68) giving their support for young people as a reason for standing.

• One candidate (age 25) is quoted as saying “The councillor I’m standing against has been there longer than I’ve been alive and we need fresh perspectives – that’s why I’m standing”.  This might suggest that older people are somehow less “fresh” in their own perspectives.

• Against that, a former council leader standing again after a 10-year gap was quoted as saying: “I have now got a greater life experience 10 years on – I think I will probably be one of the oldest candidates locally.”

Two powerful themes emerge here. Firstly, local demographics are assumed to correlate to voting intentions and patterns, with a sense that the younger end of the spectrum is more likely to be ‘progressive’ whilst the older groups are more likely to be conservative.

Secondly, awareness of age as a potentially determining factor in the perceptions of candidates and their parties. So, in one case a younger candidate suggests that his older candidate’s age argues for a ‘fresh perspective’.  However, several older candidates express themselves as both capable of making a good job of being a counsellor and motivated to represent and engage younger folk.

Evidently age matters as a factor in local politics, at least in the eyes of activists.  This suggests that some form of wider organised debate around demographics, age and ageing would be relevant and could enhance the quality of local politics and representation from the start of the new term. 

Socioeconomic Implications of Population Change.

• One Green candidate was quoted as saying “I would rather a Green councillor was in there contributing thoughts and ideas about sort of thing then, rather than a dogmatic thing typified by some of the blue people [presumably, Conservative], which is that basically they’re on their own and the market will take care of this.” Arguably this is a pithy expression of opposition to Neoliberalism!

• Population shifts and economic growth feeding through to the dynamics of local housing, employment, education, transport links and other services. “The demographics in East Lothian are changing, you tend to see families coming in”.  “The local authority is the fastest growing in Scotland (Midlothian) with its population ballooning by 15.8% between 2000 and 2019”.

• Some contributions argued for population change as a significant dynamic in improving local society, declining and ageing population was linked to severe poverty seen as a local area ‘problem’.

• More specifically underinvestment in local authority environmental services is related to high absence rates in depots during the pandemic aligned to the workforce being older and having underlying health conditions.  This perception illustrates many negative features of the way older workers and their employers experience work more generally although it is presented here as a partial explanation of local difficulties with refuse collection.  

Clearly demographic profiles and changing population patterns are factors in planning and investment decisions within and between local authorities.  It may well be that population data is considered as part of the behind-the-scenes processes of local government, however it could be that a much more transparent political process around population issues and trends would be beneficial in engaging people and justifying specific plans for services and proposals for investment.  

Conclusions. 

Scotland’s ageing population didn’t come up in the local elections on anything like the scale called for by incoming demographic (and climate!) transitions and when it did, it was still often framed within oft-told stereotypes, especially when it comes to voter intentions. This is disappointing but could be turned to advantage.  For example, once the initial decisions over Council working arrangements have been agreed, it would be possible to raise demographic issues with the new administrations with the aim of raising awareness and suggesting ways of making Council decisions and resource allocations much more age sensitive. It is in the interests of all that we consider policies in light of older people but also how they impact and are impacted by the process of ageing itself – even those of us who are not yet old will experience those transitions in real time. As the conclusion of our book, All of Our Futures, says – Scotland could very well become a country that we can proudly grow older in and can feel supported as we do so. We all – from voter to elected officials – have a vested interest in ensuring that it does.