Final FLights
Craig Dalzell - 11th August 2022
A few weeks ago I commented on the heat wave hitting us and how we might have to think of it not as one of the hottest summers on record but as one of the coolest summers of the rest of our lives unless we do something pretty drastic right now to avert it.
Despite this, I’m still far from convinced that people in Scotland really truly understand the impact of climate change as it is happening around them at the moment and as it is likely to happen even here in the decades to come even if we do the right thing now.
My friend in the south of England recently sent me this photo of the “green and pleasant land” around them at the moment. The south of England is already transitioning to a climate more akin to pre-climate change Central Europe and is likely to become more Mediterranean as temperatures continue to rise.
It’s not just temperature, of course. It’s all of the other climate impacts almost too numerous to mention that will also kick in and become more apparent with increasing rapid timescales. One of these – perhaps the hardest to actually “adapt” to – is sea level rise. Global sea levels are already rising at a pace not seen since the end of the last Ice Age and presently stands at around 3.7mm per year and presently stands around 200mm higher than it was in 1900. The 2021 IPCC report stated that even if we stop emitting greenhouse gases today, we’ve already “baked in”around two metres of sea level rise over the next several millennia and if we continue with the “business as usual” model of exacerbating the climate emergency then we could blast past that limit within a few decades.
We need to seriously ask ourselves what the impact will be on the country we know if we decide to “adapt” to that kind of world instead of trying to avert it. There are a few ways to illustrate this but I had an idea that might do it well. We all know that air travel is, environmentally, the absolute worst way to travel anywhere. Despite this, the airport lobby are strongly opposing any climate measures that might affect their precious “business model” (even an actual global pandemic largely caused by rapid air travel wasn’t enough for them to stop fighting for more of it). However, with great irony, airports are often built on low lying, flat ground – often near the coasts. Their business model may well prove to be particularly vulnerable to the climate emergency they’re helping to create.
To test this hypothesis I turned to Climate Central’s database and mapping software and asked it to show me two scenarios. The first, in blue, is the current “best case” +1.5oC Paris target – what we’ll get if we successfully follow every IPCC recommendation that we’ve been ignoring since they made them. The second, in red, is the +2.4oC “success story” of COP26 – what we’ll get if every politician successfully follows through on every promise they’ve currently made on climate change and doesn’t miss any of their targets (note that this is still above the +2.0oC limit that the Paris Accord says beyond which we start to lose hold of anything resembling our current civilisation).
I should note that this Climate Central model doesn’t tell us when we’re likely to see our seas rise to this level – again, the IPCC made clear that the tipping points involved are largely unknown and we don’t know if things like Greenland’s glaciers would melt gradually or suffer rapid collapse – but this is where the models say the equilibrium points will reach sooner or later. This report (published after I wrote the bulk of this article and based on one of Climate Central’s alternative projection models) predicts that many of the impacts could be with us as soon as 2040 if we include regular flood risk alongside permanent sea level rise. It’s also worth noting that the inland flooding may be controlled or averted to a degree by engineering works like levees or barriers but this requires the Scottish Government to spend a lot of money to adapt to a world that we should be trying to avert in the first place. With those caveats in mind, we can look at Scottish airports and what will happen to them as the seas rise. I shall give each one of them one of four verdicts. Doomed airports look likely to be completely or almost completely covered by blue areas of sea level rise thus will be badly affected even if we meet our “best case” climate targets. Threatened airports are substantially covered but only or mostly only by red areas thus may be saved so long as we don’t exceed our climate upper limits. Vulnerable airports show some risk to sea level rise directly but only in limited areas of the site or if their major transport links are substantially threatened or only if the planet badly overshoots climate target ceilings. Safe airports are not likely to be substantially affected by sea level rise even in a 2.4oC world. Note once again, that these verdicts only apply to the airports (not their surrounding settlements) and only apply to sea level rise – a world where the climate breakdown makes it impossible to live is not “safe” even if it remains above the sea.
The Big Four
Edinburgh
Scotland’s busiest passenger airport, serving around 12 million passengers per year, Edinburgh has been at the forefront of a long campaign of lobbying for its own interests. It was possibly the only one that would actually benefit from now-scrapped plans to cut Scottish airport passenger duty.
Edinburgh airport is built a fair way inland and at a significant elevation. It is probably one of the airports least vulnerable to sea level rise. This is more than can be said for nearby settlements however. Anyone thinking about buying new property in Leith or North Queensferry might want to consider how long they would expect the building to be there. The Deluge might (“might”) well be beyond our lifetime but it might start to encroach on the inheritance of our kids or grandkids…
Nearby areas like Falkirk are also expected to be badly affected. The Kelpies may well return to the sea taking, ironically, Grangemouth with them.
Verdict – Safe
Glasgow
By contrast, Scotland’s second busiest airport – Glasgow – lies directly on the flood plain formed between the Black and White Cart Waters. This region is projected to become an estuary even in the best case scenarios and the main runway looks extremely likely to become inundated along with substantial parts of Renfrew and Paisley. Just downriver, Dunbarton is also looking particularly vulnerable to even moderate sea level rises.
Verdict – Doomed.
Prestwick
Nationally owned Prestwick airport is better known as a cargo port now than a passenger one but it remains an important point of entry and exit for trade – with the caveat that air-dropped goods have just as much of a climate impact per kg as air-dropped passengers. Fortunately for Prestwick, it looks like even the 2.4oC world will only be lapping at the edges of its perimeter. It might get away with some moderate sea defences and accepting a certain level of flooding during storms and high tides. Unfortunately, those edges also some of Scotland’s most iconic seaside tourist towns. Prestwick itself along with Troon, Ayr and other nearby coastal towns will likely face increasing pressure from the sea very soon. I’ve already spoken to one environmental officer of a local authority (I won’t say if it’s this LA or not) who has told the council to either draw up plans to avert climate change or draw up plans to decide which towns to protect and which to surrender because they can’t protect them all.
Verdict – Vulnerable.
Aberdeen
The northernmost of the Big Four airports, Aberdeen is probably known more for business travellers than for tourism. Like Edinburgh, it is built further inland than many of the other airports on this list and is consequently safe from the direct impact of even the worst sea level rise. Probably of more concern will be the impact to Aberdeen itself, with seaport activities vulnerable along with Donmouth nature reserve and Aberdeen’s historic old town.
Verdict – Safe
The Regional Airports
Scotland is a country with many parts that are relatively remote and difficult to get to from the Centre (as Terry Pratchett might have said, the people living in these “remote” places can get to where they already are just fine, thank you). Scottish Ministers own Highlands and Islands Airports Ltd (HILAL) which operates eleven smaller airports around Scotland. One would think therefore that the fact that these airports are owned by the Scottish Government should put them a little higher up in the agenda when it comes to safeguarding their own assets.
Barra
World famous for being that airport where you land on a public beach, Barrais in an extremely precarious position. Like most or even perhaps all sandy beaches around the world, Traigh Mhòr is all but doomed and destined to take the airport runway with it. Eòlaigearraidh itself may well become geographically independent from Barraigh.
Verdict - Doomed
Benbecula
Benbecula looks likely to fragment into an archipelago as sea levels encroach especially its northwestern coast. The airport itself is somewhere raised compared to the surrounding land and looks like it might survive a 1.5oC world, if not a 2.4oC one. Access to the airport via the surrounding roads may become tricky however and many of the settlements in the area are looking extremely threatened.
Verdict – Threatened
Campbeltown
Campbeltown airport lies near the middle of the peninsula and so is less vulnerable to sea level rise because of it (though the nearby field look like they may become a salt marsh and that could have implications for local food production). This may cause some problems during storm surges but probably not from permanent sea level change. The actual town is in a much more precarious situation where more severe sea level rise could suddenly break through defences built for a 1.5oC world and flood much of the town.
Verdict – Vulnerable
Dundee
Dundee airport was built in the 1960s on land reclaimed from the Tay. Consequently, it is very low lying and therefore highly vulnerable to the incoming climate emergency – though it shares this problem with much of the rest of the waterfront of Dundee. You’ll notice from the map that most of the damage is already built into the 1.5oC world and only gets a little worse in the 2.4oC projections (again though, in a 2.4oC world we’ll probably see the damage come sooner and we’ll have plenty of other problems to deal with too).
Verdict – Doomed
Inverness
Inverness airport is not nearly as vulnerable as Inverness itself. The city is one of the most vulnerable in Scotland and even in a "moderate" sea level rise scenario looks like it'll lose its heart to the rising tides. The airport is only likely to see serious problems towards the upper end of the models here – though it'll only get worse if climate targets continue to be missed or if tipping points are crossed and cause sea levels to rise further than expected. It's possible that even in this world, the airport may get away with some significant sea defences.
Verdict – Vulnerable
Islay
Like Inverness, Islay airport is really only worried about the sea lapping at its edges in some of the warmer scenarios. It may be manageable with some engineering or redesign. This isn't to say that the island of Islay is safe. Indeed, it may well be split in two as Gruinart floods. I haven't checked all of them but several of the island's famous distilleries also lie precariously close to the coast.
Verdict – Vulnerable
Kirkwall
Again, Kirkwall airport provides a good example of belying the disaster unfolding around it. The airport itself looks like it'll stay mostly dry but the access road to it is threatened and Kirkwall the town is likely to become significantly devastated. The two major roads running east-west through the town are in danger so that it's possible that without signifcant restructuring of the transport network, the peninsula east of the town could become functionally isolated from the Mainland. Like many coastal places in Scotland and around the world, the climate emergency is going to play an increasingly disruptive role for folk trying to live and work there.
Verdict – Threatened
Stornoway
By now, you'll be seeing a common thread with many of the Scottish islands. Even if Scotland and the world meets its 1.5oC target, the seas are likely to take Stornoway airport and much of the surrounding land.
Verdict – Doomed
Sumburgh
As Scottish islands go, Shetland may be one of the better ones when it comes to sea level rise. Being away from the Scottish mainland limits the concentration of tidal forces and its rockier coastline limits ingress of the sea inland. Sumburgh airport is an exception however, with even moderate projections showing it drowning beneath the waves as the peninsula breaks up into an archipelago.
Verdict – Doomed
Tiree
Another island that faces a climate-related separation event, Tiree looks likely to become two. This is less likely to affect Tiree airport itself however which lies just at the edge of the 2.4oC Red Zone. Tiree's famous beaches, however, are sadly high on the list of being another casualty of our world's inaction in the face of the climate emergency.
Verdict – Vulnerable
Wick
The last airport on my list today (I'll leave it an an exercise to others to have a look at their own local transport links if they haven't been featured), Wick John O'Groats is probably safe from the direct impact of the sea though, again, the town itself may have problems down by its waterfront or as the Wick River widens into an estuary. Transport links across the river could become a particular problem if the bridges or the connections to them are inundated.
Verdict – Safe
Conclusion
Averting the climate emergency will not be possible without disrupting the "business model" of the airline industry but it's clear that not doing anything will disrupt it even more – along with everything else. This is a much bigger problem than just that sector and will involve disrupting many aspects of our lives. If we do it right, we'll welcome those disruptions. If we don't do it, we won't. That's the choice facing us and, right now, those in power are running away from that choice.
Please have a browse around the Climate Central map and play with the various temperature and sea level rise scenarios. Tell me what your town will look like if we fail to avert the climate emergency. Then tell your MSP that it's up to them to make sure that future doesn't happen.